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Past evidence supports the complete loss of Arctic sea ice by 2035



Past evidence supports the complete loss of Arctic sea ice by 2035

Arctic Sea Ice, MOSAiC Expedition. Credit: Markus Frey, British Antarctic Survey

A new study, published this week in the journal Natural Climate Change, supports the predictions that the Arctic may be without sea ice by 2035.

High temperatures in the Arctic during the last interglacial ̵

1; the warm period about 127,000 years ago – have puzzled scientists for decades. Now the climate model at the Hadley Center of the Met Office in the UK has enabled a team of international researchers to compare Arctic sea ice conditions during the last interglacial to today. Their findings are important for improving predictions of future sea ice change.

During spring and early summer, shallow pools of water form on the icy surface of the Arctic Sea. These ‘melted ponds’ are important for how much sunlight is absorbed by the ice and how much it is reflected back into space. The new Hadley Center model is the UK’s most advanced physical representation of the Earth’s climate and a critical tool for climate study and includes sea ice basins and melts.

Using the model to see Arctic sea ice during the last interglacial, the team concludes that the impact of the intense spring sun created many molten ponds, which played a crucial role in melting sea ice. A future simulation using the same model shows that the Arctic can be made ice-free at sea by 2035.

The main author of the leadership of Dr. Dr. Maria Vittoria Guarino, Earth System Moderator at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), says, “High temperatures in the Arctic have puzzled scientists for decades. Discovering this mystery was technically and scientifically challenging. For the first time, we we can begin to see how the Arctic became an ice-free sea during the last interglacial. Advances made in climate modeling mean that we can create a more accurate simulation of the Earth’s past climate, which, in turn on the other hand, it gives us more confidence in the model forecasts for the future. “

Dr Louise Sime, head of the Palaeoclimate group and author of Joint Leadership at BAS, says, “We know the Arctic is undergoing significant changes as our planet warms. Understanding what happened during Earth’s last warm period. we are in a better position to understand what will happen in the future.The prospect of losing sea ice by 2035 must be really focused on all of our minds to achieve a world with low carbon as soon as humanly possible “.

Dr David Schroeder and Prof. Danny Feltham from the University of Reading, who developed and co-directed the implementation of the melted basin scheme in the climate model, say: “This shows how important sea ice processes are as melted basins. in the Arctic, and why it is important that they be included in climate models. ”


The 100-year-old physics model replicates the melting of modern Arctic ice


More information:
Guarino, M., Sime, LC, Schröeder, D. et al. Arctic without ice from the sea during the Last Interglacial supports rapid future losses. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2020). doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0865-2

Provided by the British Antarctic Survey



citation: Past Evidence Supports Complete Arctic Sea Ice Loss by 2035 (2020, August 10) Retrieved August 11, 2020 from https://phys.org/news/2020-08-evidence-loss-arctic-sea -ice.iceml

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