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Home / Health / The current number of COVID-19 cases is likely to be much higher than 20 million – when are people at greatest risk of spreading the virus?

The current number of COVID-19 cases is likely to be much higher than 20 million – when are people at greatest risk of spreading the virus?



The coronavirus pandemic struck another unfortunate milestone on Tuesday as the number of COVID-19 infections reached 20,130,206 globally, according to the latest data collected by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering.

But the current number of cases in both the US and around the world is likely to be much higher, health officials say. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that 40% of people with COVID-19 are actually asymptomatic. Other data have suggested that 16% of coronavirus transmission is due to carriers who show no symptoms or show only very mild symptoms, who, while contagious, cannot believe they have the disease.


The virus can be detected in people one to three days before the onset of their symptom, with the highest viral loads around the day of onset of symptoms.

A case study of the quarantined city of V q, published in the peer-reviewed journal, in June found that more than 40% of COVID-1

9 infections had no symptoms. With a population of nearly 3,200 people, Vò reported Italy’s first COVID-related death on 20 February. As a result, city dwellers were placed in quarantine for 14 days.

About 2.6% of the city tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, at the beginning of the blockage, but that figure dropped to 1.2% after a few weeks. During all this time, 40% of those infections were people who showed no symptoms. The researchers also concluded that it took 9.3 days for people who tested positive to be free of viruses.

“Someone with an asymptomatic infection is completely unaware of the transmission of the virus and, according to his lifestyle and profession, can meet a large number of people without modifying their behavior,” the study, which was conducted by researchers from Imperial College London and University of Padua.

“If we find a certain number of symptomatic people who test positive, we expect the same number of asymptomatic carriers who are much more difficult to identify and isolate,” said Enrico Lavezzo, a professor in the Department of Molecular Medicine at the University of Padova.

A separate study from China on asymptomatic cases “suggests that the percentage of infected people who never showed symptoms was 23%,” the World Health Organization noted last month. “Numerous studies have shown that people infect others before they get sick on their own, which is supported by data available on viral ejaculation. A transmission study in Singapore reported that 6.4% of secondary cases resulted from pre-symptomatic transmission.” added the organization.

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recognition when an infected person can spread SARS-CoV-2 is just as important as how the virus spreads so quickly. The WHO recently published a scientific review on how the virus spreads, especially among those who show no symptoms.

The virus can be detected in people one to three days before the onset of their symptom, with the highest viral loads around the day of onset of symptoms, followed by a gradual decline over time. This level of adhesion appears to be one to two weeks for asymptomatic persons, and up to three weeks or more for patients with mild to moderate disease.


The virus can be detected in people one to three days before the onset of their symptom, with the highest viral loads around the day of onset of symptoms.

“SARS-CoV-2 transmission can occur through direct, indirect, or close contact with infected persons through infected secretions such as saliva and respiratory secretions or their respiratory droplets, which are expelled when a person is infected. infected coughs, sneezes, talks or sings, “said the WHO.” This makes asymptomatic transmission more prevalent, scientists say.

However, all studies on asymptomatic people have limitations, the WHO added: “For example, some studies did not clearly describe how they followed up with people who were asymptomatic at the time of testing to determine if they had ever had symptoms. Others defined it. ‘ asymptomatic ‘very closely as persons who never developed fever or respiratory symptoms, rather than as those who showed no symptoms at all. “

The death toll from COVID-19 in the U.S. could reach nearly 300,000 by Dec. 1, but continuing to wear masks today could save approximately 70,000 lives, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Assessment (IHME) at the School of Medicine. University of Washington School of Medicine. “It seems that people wear masks and distance themselves more often from society, as infections increase, then after a while the infections fall, people release their guard and stop taking these measures to protect themselves and others,” the director said. and IHME, Christopher Murray.

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COVID-19 has now killed at least 737,394 people worldwide, and the US ranks 15th in the world in deaths per 100,000 people (49.5), says Johns Hopkins University. With 10,474 deaths, California recently became the third U.S. state to record more than 10,000 deaths, after New York (32,781 deaths) and New Jersey (15,878 deaths).

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, last month announced a review of nationwide operations in restaurants, as well as bars, zoos, canteens, museums, card rooms and cinemas. “This is in every county in the state of California, not just those on the watch list,” he said.

The closure also affected the internal operations of gyms, places of worship, non-critical sector offices, hairdressers, beauty salons, home centers and other business locations in 30 counties on California’s “monitoring list,” which account for 80%. of the State of California.

On the anniversary of the 1918 flu, health writer Ed Yong warned of another pandemic and now says the U.S. needs to learn lessons from the past seven months, adding, “COVID-19 is simply a vanguard of the worst wounds that will come. ”


New York City, the epicenter of the pandemic in the U.S. in the early days of the pandemic, was a case study of how some Americans got away better than others, and how the virus is transmitted.

“Despite ample warning, the US destroyed every possible opportunity to control the coronavirus. And, despite its considerable advantages – extraordinary resources, biomedical power, scientific expertise – it erred,” he wrote in the September issue of The Atlantic. As South Korea, Thailand, Iceland, Slovakia and Australia acted “resolutely” to flatten and then bend the curve of new infections down, “the US simply reached a plateau in the spring, which changed into a terrible slope. growing over the summer, ”he said.

Yong said he had spoken to more than 100 health experts since the beginning of the pandemic and summed up the US mistakes this way: “A slow response from a government denied denial of expertise allowed the coronavirus to gain a foothold,” he said. complicated by “chronic lack of public health funds,” he said. “A bloated, inefficient health care system left hospitals unprepared for the ensuing wave of disease. “The racist policies that have endured since the days of colonization and slavery have left indigenous and black indigenous people particularly vulnerable to COVID-19.”

New York City, the occasional epicenter of the pandemic in the U.S., was a case study of how some Americans left better than others and how the virus is transmitted. Black and Latino people were hospitalized with double the level of Caucasians during the peak of the crisis, data released in May by the city showed.

Black New Yorkers were hospitalized at a rate of 632 per 100,000 people, while Caucasians were hospitalized at a rate of 284 per 100,000 people. Black and Hispanics are dying at a rate of 21.3 per 100,000, while non-white races are dying at a rate of 40.2 per 100,000, according to the data.

One theory: More foreign-born Americans are more likely to live in multi-generational families, and Asian and Hispanic people are more likely than white people to be immigrants, according to the Pew Research Center. People of color are more likely to work in front jobs carrying a greater risk of contracting COVID-19.

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President Donald Trump on Saturday bypassed the country’s lawmakers after he claimed authority to postpone payroll taxes and replace an expired unemployment benefit with a much lower one after negotiations with Congress for a new coronavirus rescue package.

However, the executive order and the memoranda that apparently offer relief amid the incomprehensible pandemic do not seem possible or legal, analysts said, adding that the wording of the orders raises more questions than answers.

The US has the highest number of COVID-19 deaths of any country (163,613), followed by Brazil (101,752), Mexico (53,003), the United Kingdom (46,611) and India (45,257). The virus has infected at least 5,094,565 people in the US, most of each country.

Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a member of the White House coronavirus working group, has been optimistic about a vaccine arriving in late 2020 or early 2021, and says people should continue to practice social masks at a distance and wear.

Fauci has said he is hopeful that a coronavirus vaccine could be developed by early 2021, but has previously said it is unlikely that a vaccine will provide 100% immunity; he said the best realistic result, based on other vaccines, would be 70% to 75% effectiveness. Other epidemiologists are even closer to a vaccine that erases the transmission of the virus at any time soon.

“We’re not going to vaccinate our way out of this eight billion people in the world right now,” said Michael Osterholm, a University of Minnesota epidemiologist who recognized the outbreak. It would become a pandemic as early as January. of this month “And if we do not have sustained immunity, we can look at revaccination on a routine basis, if we can do it. We really need to be able to live with this virus, for at least a lifetime, and at the same time, it does not mean that we can not do much about it. “

Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,
+ 1.07%
and S&P 500 SPX,
+ 0.51%
rose slightly on Tuesday as investors expected progress in the second round of a fiscal stimulus during the coronavirus pandemic; Nasdaq Composite Complex,
-0.08%
was in negative territory.

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